Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 50%
$286.56
-$511.76
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.5¢ | $504.82 | — | -$496.38 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$3.4 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $112.92 | $112.24 | -$0.63 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $15.98 | — | -$15.98 | 43% 1145-1523 (2668) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $8.28 | $8.15 | -$0.11 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $10.02 | $7 | -$3.02 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $6.06 | $9.18 | +$3.12 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 48% 1402-1515 (2917) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.61 | 32% 980-2061 (3041) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 1298-2160 (3458) |
Invested
$504.82
Value
—
PnL
-$496.38
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$3.4
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$112.92
Value
$112.24
PnL
-$0.63
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
Invested
$15.98
Value
—
PnL
-$15.98
Record
43%
1145-1523 (2668)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$8.15
PnL
-$0.11
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$7
PnL
-$3.02
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$3.12
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
48%
1402-1515 (2917)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
32%
980-2061 (3041)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1298-2160 (3458)