Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Up 64%
2 arb excluded
$720.39
-$6.85
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $502.25 | $500 | +$0.3 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.75 | $500 | +$250.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $145 | -$2.5 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $72.5 | $145 | +$72.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $74.53 | — | -$74.75 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $32.06 | $49.3 | +$17.24 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $17.82 | $18 | +$0.18 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $8.05 | — | -$8.05 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $6.37 | $6 | -$0.37 | 64% 2269-1266 (3535) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.2 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.2¢ | $4.85 | — | -$4.85 | 43% 1145-1523 (2668) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $7.17 | $2.09 | -$0.08 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 48% 1402-1515 (2917) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.12 | 32% 980-2061 (3041) |
Invested
$502.25
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$145
PnL
-$2.5
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.06
Value
$49.3
PnL
+$17.24
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.18
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$8.05
Value
—
PnL
-$8.05
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$6.37
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.37
Record
64%
2269-1266 (3535)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.2
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$4.85
Value
—
PnL
-$4.85
Record
43%
1145-1523 (2668)
Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$0.08
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
1402-1515 (2917)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.12
Record
32%
980-2061 (3041)