Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $789 held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$789.09

Combined PnL

-$12.78

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$138.73

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$0.14

Down4 traders

Total Value$24.31

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$12.64

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$517.95	$499.74	+$3.84	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$243.68	$279.67	+$36.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$249.63	$220.07	-$32.83
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$126.31	-$7.45	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$62.5	$70.63	+$5.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$64	$55.68	-$12.82
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$66.95	$50.09	-$10.11	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$34.73	$47.88	+$13.15	43% 1133-1518 (2651)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$23.75	$20.01	-$2.59	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$21.65	$15.43	+$1.78	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 37.8¢	$9.82	$11.31	+$1.49	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$8.64	$10.54	+$1.9	38% 1328-2178 (3506)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 77¢	$3.85	$2.82	-$1.03	52% 2502-2335 (4837)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77¢	$3.85	$2.5	-$1.35	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.45	+$0.55	48% 1394-1507 (2901)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$30.99	$0.01	-$16.57	54% 2198-1898 (4096)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$517.95

Value

$499.74

PnL

+$3.84

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

Both legs:

Up$243.6849.2¢+$36.67

Down$249.6349.3¢-$32.83

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$126.31

PnL

-$7.45

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

Both legs:

Up$62.550¢+$5.38

Down$6450¢-$12.82

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$66.95

Value

$50.09

PnL

-$10.11

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

13897651<$100

Invested

$34.73

Value

$47.88

PnL

+$13.15

Record

43%

1133-1518 (2651)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$2.59

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$15.43

PnL

+$1.78

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.82

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$1.49

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.64

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$1.9

Record

38%

1328-2178 (3506)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$1.03

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.35

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.99

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$16.57

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.