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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 15% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 15%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$340.17

Combined PnL

-$479.15

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 13 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$495.25

Down11 traders

Total Value$190.17

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$16.1

Up — 15%Down — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$508.19	—	-$494.89	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$1.7	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$150	+$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$72.5	—	-$73.3
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$49.69	$49.6	+$9.36	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 88.9¢	$38.87	$36.87	-$2	43% 1133-1518 (2651)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98.7¢	$27.95	$28.3	+$0.35	38% 1328-2178 (3506)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 95¢	$19	$20	+$1	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$17.59	$18.3	+$0.71	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$4.86	$10	+$5.14	54% 2198-1898 (4096)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 94¢	$5.64	$6	+$0.36	42% 1520-2127 (3647)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98¢	$5.94	$6.06	+$0.12	64% 2251-1263 (3514)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97.3¢	$5.88	$6.04	+$0.16	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	49% 2245-2302 (4547)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 48¢	$3.2	$4	+$0.8	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$0.36	—	-$0.36	32% 974-2040 (3014)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$508.19

Value

—

PnL

-$494.89

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$1.7

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢+$75

Up$72.550¢-$73.3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$49.69

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$9.36

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

Invested

$38.87

Value

$36.87

PnL

-$2

Record

43%

1133-1518 (2651)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$27.95

Value

$28.3

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

1328-2178 (3506)

Invested

$19

Value

$20

PnL

+$1

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

Invested

$17.59

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$0.71

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

Invested

$4.86

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.14

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.36

Record

42%

1520-2127 (3647)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.12

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.16

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

32%

974-2040 (3014)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 13 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x50c7b6c4...10659d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794662400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $49.6

13897651

Down — $36.87

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $28.3

aaa221

Down — $20

asdcaxz

Down — $18.3

ply-pm2

Down — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

asidjasiodja

Down — $6.06

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