Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
22
Up 64%
$441.02
-$868.21
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $545.16 | β | -$463.39 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.9Β’ | $256.29 | $211.51 | -$37.64 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50Β’ | $153.4 | β | -$132.45 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
13 13897651CTR | Upavg 54.2Β’ | $107.8 | β | -$107.8 | 43% 1133-1518 (2651) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.8Β’ | $78.05 | $79 | +$0.95 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 48.2Β’ | $32 | $66.39 | +$34.39 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.1Β’ | $68.13 | β | -$68.13 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8Β’ | $52.4 | β | -$52.4 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2Β’ | $44.67 | β | -$40.97 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 19.5Β’ | $10.18 | $29.31 | +$19.13 | 38% 1328-2178 (3506) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 79.9Β’ | $15.39 | β | -$15.39 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
![]() pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 18.9Β’ | $6.25 | $33.09 | +$26.85 | 32% 974-2040 (3014) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 58Β’ | $5.08 | $6.12 | +$1.04 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $5.3 | $10.6 | +$5.3 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.5Β’ | $7.35 | β | -$7.35 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 27Β’ | $5.93 | β | -$2.28 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.7Β’ | $5.9 | β | -$4.74 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58Β’ | $2.9 | $5 | +$2.1 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 28Β’ | $2.8 | β | -$2.8 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 11Β’ | $0.55 | β | -$0.55 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.4Β’ | $17.75 | β | -$17.75 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.2Β’ | $4.33 | β | -$4.33 | 42% 1520-2127 (3647) |
Invested
$545.16
Value
β
PnL
-$463.39
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$256.29
Value
$211.51
PnL
-$37.64
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Invested
$153.4
Value
β
PnL
-$132.45
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$107.8
Value
β
PnL
-$107.8
Record
43%
1133-1518 (2651)
Invested
$78.05
Value
$79
PnL
+$0.95
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$32
Value
$66.39
PnL
+$34.39
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$68.13
Value
β
PnL
-$68.13
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$52.4
Value
β
PnL
-$52.4
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Invested
$44.67
Value
β
PnL
-$40.97
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$29.31
PnL
+$19.13
Record
38%
1328-2178 (3506)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$15.39
Value
β
PnL
-$15.39
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
$33.09
PnL
+$26.85
Record
32%
974-2040 (3014)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$6.12
PnL
+$1.04
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$5.3
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
β
PnL
-$7.35
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$5.93
Value
β
PnL
-$2.28
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$5.9
Value
β
PnL
-$4.74
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.1
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
Invested
$2.8
Value
β
PnL
-$2.8
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
β
PnL
-$0.55
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
Invested
$17.75
Value
β
PnL
-$17.75
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$4.33
Value
β
PnL
-$4.33
Record
42%
1520-2127 (3647)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp β $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $211.51
soswald1
CTRUp β $0
13897651
CTRUp β $0
hoodquant
Down β $79

BoneOhio
Down β $66.39
asdcaxz
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp β $0
blue.birds
CTRUp β $0

OhioRiskManagement
Down β $29.31