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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$353.34

Combined PnL

-$489.34

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares567
Combined PnL-$503.05
Up11 traders
Total Value$203.34
Total Shares203
Combined PnL+$13.71
Down — 27%Up — 73%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$500.86

Value

—

PnL

-$489.12

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$8.7

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

Both legs:

Up$7550¢+$75
Down$6050¢-$66.3
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Up

Invested

$49.18

Value

$56.67

PnL

+$7.49

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

13
13897651<$100
Up

Invested

$39.92

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$4.92

Record

43%

1133-1518 (2651)

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Up

Invested

$35.64

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.64

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Up

Invested

$12

Value

$15

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$11.66

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$12.96

Value

$11

PnL

-$1.96

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

cryingbabydicer87<$100
Up

Invested

$9.23

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$9.42

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$2.31

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

BL
blue.birdsCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

—

PnL

-$4.45

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.03

Value

—

PnL

-$7.03

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.44

Value

—

PnL

-$2.44

Record

32%

974-2040 (3014)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Up

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

1315-1249 (2564)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xab3abc7a...d9cab3
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794661800

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$489.12
SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.7
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $56.67

+$7.49
13

13897651

Up — $44.84

+$4.92
AS

asdcaxz

Up — $35

-$0.64
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $15

+$3
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $12

+$0.35
AS

asdaefef

Up — $11

-$1.96

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $10.48

+$1.25
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $7.11

-$2.31
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