Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 31%
1 arb excluded
$627.35
-$552.62
Smart Money Signal
5 of 16 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.6¢ | $509.42 | — | -$482 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $129.4 | $130.71 | +$1.31 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $163.41 | $132 | -$31.41 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.9¢ | $91.83 | — | -$91.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.2¢ | $71.58 | $132 | +$60.42 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $103.95 | $105 | +$1.05 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $57.6 | $62.42 | +$4.82 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $34.34 | $53 | +$18.66 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $39.6 | $47 | +$23.1 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.3¢ | $40.83 | — | -$40.83 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $42.33 | $42.83 | +$0.5 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $40.11 | — | -$40.11 | 43% 1133-1518 (2651) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $19.58 | $26.59 | +$7.01 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $58.79 | — | -$35.98 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $10.18 | $10 | -$0.15 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $7.92 | $8.12 | +$0.2 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $2.29 | $3.69 | +$1.4 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $16.87 | — | -$11.72 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
Invested
$509.42
Value
—
PnL
-$482
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
BoneOhioInvested
$129.4
Value
$130.71
PnL
+$1.31
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$163.41
Value
$132
PnL
-$31.41
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.95
Value
$105
PnL
+$1.05
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$62.42
PnL
+$4.82
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$53
PnL
+$18.66
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$47
PnL
+$23.1
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$40.83
Value
—
PnL
-$40.83
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Invested
$42.33
Value
$42.83
PnL
+$0.5
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$40.11
Value
—
PnL
-$40.11
Record
43%
1133-1518 (2651)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$19.58
Value
$26.59
PnL
+$7.01
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
Invested
$58.79
Value
—
PnL
-$35.98
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$10.18
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.15
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8.12
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$1.4
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$16.87
Value
—
PnL
-$11.72
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $130.71
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $105
soswald1
Down — $62.42
uninformedfloww
Down — $53
asdcaxz
Down — $47
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $42.83
13897651
CTRUp — $0