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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 33%

Total Value

$322.41

Combined PnL

-$528.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$537.19

Up10 traders

Total Value$322.41

Total Shares322

Combined PnL+$8.42

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$507.36	—	-$492.03	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 99¢	$72.98	$73.72	+$0.74	71% 1474-604 (2078)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$74.9	$64.18	-$10.73	51% 2975-2913 (5888)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 74¢	$60.49	$58.56	-$1.93	43% 1127-1510 (2637)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$54.38	$50.3	+$5.17	52% 4886-4583 (9469)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$53.33	$44	-$1.03	49% 4251-4347 (8598)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 26.4¢	$31.54	—	-$31.54	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$4.91	$12.08	+$7.17	38% 1317-2163 (3480)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.1¢	$7.12	$8.18	+$1.06	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1.6	$8.4	+$6.8	32% 965-2025 (2990)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	47% 2004-2262 (4266)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$1.67	—	-$1.67	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1	$2	+$1	50% 1794-1769 (3563)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83¢	$0.83	$1	+$0.17	52% 2488-2319 (4807)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$10.9	—	-$10.9	51% 3148-3049 (6197)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$507.36

Value

—

PnL

-$492.03

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

Invested

$72.98

Value

$73.72

PnL

+$0.74

Record

71%

1474-604 (2078)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$74.9

Value

$64.18

PnL

-$10.73

Record

51%

2975-2913 (5888)

Invested

$60.49

Value

$58.56

PnL

-$1.93

Record

43%

1127-1510 (2637)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$54.38

Value

$50.3

PnL

+$5.17

Record

52%

4886-4583 (9469)

Invested

$53.33

Value

$44

PnL

-$1.03

Record

49%

4251-4347 (8598)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$31.54

Value

—

PnL

-$31.54

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$7.17

Record

38%

1317-2163 (3480)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$1.06

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

Invested

$1.6

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$6.8

Record

32%

965-2025 (2990)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

47%

2004-2262 (4266)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

—

PnL

-$1.67

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1

Value

$2

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

1794-1769 (3563)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

2488-2319 (4807)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$10.9

Value

—

PnL

-$10.9

Record

51%

3148-3049 (6197)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe2290db8...a83d92

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794660300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $73.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $64.18

13897651

Up — $58.56

blue.birds

Up — $50.3

asdcaxz

Up — $44

ply-pm2

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $12.08

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $8.18

pspspsps5

Up — $8.4

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