Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (44%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $547 held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 44%

Total Value

$547.21

Combined PnL

-$18.94

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$500.67

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$3.97

Down5 traders

Total Value$46.53

Total Shares59

Combined PnL-$14.97

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.3¢	$501.3	$496.12	-$0.82	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 86¢	$21.5	$12.5	-$9	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 94¢	$11.28	$11.94	+$0.66	41% 1475-2082 (3557)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 89¢	$16.32	$11.82	-$4.5	43% 1118-1501 (2619)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 95¢	$8.25	$5.5	-$2.75	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 87¢	$4.15	$4.77	+$0.62	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$6.19	$4.4	-$1.78	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1.4¢	$0.31	$0.12	-$0.2	32% 958-2010 (2968)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 1.9¢	$1.19	$0.03	-$1.16	38% 1307-2140 (3447)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$501.3

Value

$496.12

PnL

-$0.82

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$21.5

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$9

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$0.66

Record

41%

1475-2082 (3557)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$16.32

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$4.5

Record

43%

1118-1501 (2619)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$8.25

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$2.75

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1.78

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

958-2010 (2968)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.16

Record

38%

1307-2140 (3447)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.