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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$731.74

Combined PnL

-$231.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares323

Combined PnL-$215.3

Up4 traders

Total Value$150.74

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$16.53

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$518.61	$500	+$0.2	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250.2	$500	+$251.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$253.48	—	-$251.65
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 32.2¢	$133.28	—	-$133.28	54% 2156-1847 (4003)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 67.3¢	$128.47	$114.21	-$14.26	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$81	-$15.35	51% 3113-3000 (6113)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$40.5	$81	+$36.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$45	—	-$51.5
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$38.76	$31.39	-$5.67	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$31.99	—	-$31.99	42% 1107-1498 (2605)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$26.12	—	-$26.12	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$18.66	—	-$18.66	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$5.25	—	-$5.25	38% 1297-2123 (3420)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 34¢	$1.7	$5	+$3.3	48% 1372-1476 (2848)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 27¢	$0.04	$0.14	+$0.1	52% 2466-2274 (4740)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$518.61

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Up$250.250¢+$251.85

Down$253.4849.7¢-$251.65

Invested

$133.28

Value

—

PnL

-$133.28

Record

54%

2156-1847 (4003)

Invested

$128.47

Value

$114.21

PnL

-$14.26

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$81

PnL

-$15.35

Record

51%

3113-3000 (6113)

Both legs:

Up$40.550¢+$36.15

Down$4550¢-$51.5

Invested

$38.76

Value

$31.39

PnL

-$5.67

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$31.99

Value

—

PnL

-$31.99

Record

42%

1107-1498 (2605)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$26.12

Value

—

PnL

-$26.12

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

Invested

$18.66

Value

—

PnL

-$18.66

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

—

PnL

-$5.25

Record

38%

1297-2123 (3420)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

1372-1476 (2848)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

2466-2274 (4740)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x822f467a...7f8884

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794651900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

blue.birds

Up — $114.21

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Up — $31.39

13897651

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $5

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