Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Up 54%
2 arb excluded
$885.25
-$19.65
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $522.13 | $505.06 | -$0.73 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $255.01 | $505.06 | +$251.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.1¢ | $247.33 | — | -$252.24 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.6¢ | $138.88 | $139.51 | +$0.64 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $68.41 | $67.12 | -$1.29 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.5¢ | $38.8 | $49 | +$10.2 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $20.61 | — | -$20.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.1¢ | $18.19 | $49 | +$30.81 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $24.1 | $40.14 | +$16.04 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $31.75 | $39.42 | +$7.67 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $32.92 | $40 | +$7.08 | 42% 1107-1498 (2605) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $5.74 | — | -$5.74 | 48% 1372-1476 (2848) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $0.54 | — | -$0.54 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.78 | — | -$0.78 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $19.95 | — | -$19.95 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $12.75 | — | -$12.75 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.2 | 47% 1944-2175 (4119) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.7¢ | $4.07 | — | -$4.07 | 46% 2546-3015 (5561) |
Invested
$522.13
Value
$505.06
PnL
-$0.73
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.88
Value
$139.51
PnL
+$0.64
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$68.41
Value
$67.12
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$49
PnL
+$10.2
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.1
Value
$40.14
PnL
+$16.04
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$31.75
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$7.67
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
Invested
$32.92
Value
$40
PnL
+$7.08
Record
42%
1107-1498 (2605)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$5.74
Value
—
PnL
-$5.74
Record
48%
1372-1476 (2848)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$0.54
Value
—
PnL
-$0.54
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.78
Value
—
PnL
-$0.78
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
Invested
$19.95
Value
—
PnL
-$19.95
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
—
PnL
-$12.75
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.2
Record
47%
1944-2175 (4119)
Invested
$4.07
Value
—
PnL
-$4.07
Record
46%
2546-3015 (5561)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $139.51
asdcaxz
Down — $67.12
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $40.14
ply-pm2
Down — $39.42
13897651
Down — $40
cryingbabydicer87
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $5
aaa221
CTRUp — $0