Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $758 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Up
9
Up 67%
$758.49
-$10.25
55.7¢ → 99.5¢
+79% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $514.19 | $497.94 | -$0.54 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $115.7 | -$7.99 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $49.43 | $54.05 | +$4.62 | 42% 1095-1493 (2588) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $39.8 | $28.01 | -$11.79 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $24 | $26.53 | +$2.53 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $15.13 | $16.46 | +$1.34 | 60% 3418-2292 (5710) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $14.45 | $10.6 | -$3.85 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.4¢ | $2.99 | $6.06 | +$3.07 | 38% 1284-2104 (3388) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $0.79 | $3.14 | +$2.35 | 32% 943-1979 (2922) |
Invested
$514.19
Value
$497.94
PnL
-$0.54
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$150
Value
$115.7
PnL
-$7.99
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Invested
$49.43
Value
$54.05
PnL
+$4.62
Record
42%
1095-1493 (2588)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$28.01
PnL
-$11.79
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
Invested
$24
Value
$26.53
PnL
+$2.53
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$16.46
PnL
+$1.34
Record
60%
3418-2292 (5710)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$3.85
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$3.07
Record
38%
1284-2104 (3388)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.79
Value
$3.14
PnL
+$2.35
Record
32%
943-1979 (2922)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.