Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 38%
1 arb excluded
$149.55
-$486.16
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $507.79 | — | -$497.52 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $39.71 | $42.14 | +$2.43 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.1¢ | $17.42 | — | -$17.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.9¢ | $22.29 | $42.14 | +$19.85 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $36.61 | $36.98 | +$0.37 | 38% 1284-2104 (3388) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $41 | $50 | +$9 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $12.89 | $13.94 | +$1.05 | 42% 1095-1493 (2588) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $1.48 | $1.49 | +$0.01 | 32% 943-1979 (2922) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $0.09 | — | -$0.09 | 48% 1366-1467 (2833) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.18 | — | -$0.18 | 51% 1285-1221 (2506) |
Invested
$507.79
Value
—
PnL
-$497.52
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$39.71
Value
$42.14
PnL
+$2.43
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$36.61
Value
$36.98
PnL
+$0.37
Record
38%
1284-2104 (3388)
Invested
$41
Value
$50
PnL
+$9
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
Invested
$12.89
Value
$13.94
PnL
+$1.05
Record
42%
1095-1493 (2588)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.01
Record
32%
943-1979 (2922)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
—
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
1366-1467 (2833)
Invested
$0.18
Value
—
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
1285-1221 (2506)