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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$277.06

Combined PnL

-$492.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$493.47

Up6 traders

Total Value$158.06

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$0.54

Down — 25%Up — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.1¢	$515.42	—	-$495.15	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$119	-$20.91	51% 3061-2966 (6027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	—	-$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$59.5	$119	+$54.09
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 68¢	$45.84	$41	-$4.84	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$31.07	$39.29	+$8.22	42% 1083-1491 (2574)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$34.34	$38	+$3.66	54% 2121-1818 (3939)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 53¢	$20.4	$20	-$0.4	50% 4185-4256 (8441)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 81¢	$18.1	$10	-$6.2	52% 4818-4502 (9320)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.68	$9.78	+$0.1	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$8.19	—	+$1.69	60% 3392-2277 (5669)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$515.42

Value

—

PnL

-$495.15

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$119

PnL

-$20.91

Record

51%

3061-2966 (6027)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢-$75

Up$59.550¢+$54.09

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$45.84

Value

$41

PnL

-$4.84

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Invested

$31.07

Value

$39.29

PnL

+$8.22

Record

42%

1083-1491 (2574)

Invested

$34.34

Value

$38

PnL

+$3.66

Record

54%

2121-1818 (3939)

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

4185-4256 (8441)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$18.1

Value

$10

PnL

-$6.2

Record

52%

4818-4502 (9320)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1717-1721 (3438)

Invested

$8.19

Value

—

PnL

+$1.69

Record

60%

3392-2277 (5669)

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x32b784e2...534b6c

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794643800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $41

13897651

Up — $39.29

ply-pm2

Up — $38

asdcaxz

Up — $20

blue.birds

Up — $10

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $9.78

aaa221

Down — $0

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