Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$928.51
$43.38
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $514.44 | $491.31 | +$0.9 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $244.88 | — | -$246.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $248.61 | $491.31 | +$246.92 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.7¢ | $137.63 | $128.87 | -$8.76 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $69.63 | $106.6 | +$36.97 | 54% 2104-1796 (3900) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $54.5 | $65.23 | +$18.17 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 45.8¢ | $26.86 | $37 | +$10.14 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $44.79 | $50.51 | +$5.72 | 42% 1071-1482 (2553) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.4¢ | $8.88 | — | -$8.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.1¢ | $35.91 | $50.51 | +$14.6 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $31.5 | $29 | -$2.5 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $6.8 | $10 | +$3.2 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 7.3¢ | $5.63 | — | -$5.63 | 32% 925-1945 (2870) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.5¢ | $4.26 | — | -$4.26 | 37% 1244-2078 (3322) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $5.05 | $5 | -$0.05 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $0.98 | — | -$0.98 | 48% 1355-1450 (2805) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $1.33 | — | -$1.33 | 38% 1261-2069 (3330) |
Invested
$514.44
Value
$491.31
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Invested
$137.63
Value
$128.87
PnL
-$8.76
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$69.63
Value
$106.6
PnL
+$36.97
Record
54%
2104-1796 (3900)
Invested
$54.5
Value
$65.23
PnL
+$18.17
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$26.86
Value
$37
PnL
+$10.14
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$44.79
Value
$50.51
PnL
+$5.72
Record
42%
1071-1482 (2553)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.5
Value
$29
PnL
-$2.5
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.2
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.63
Value
—
PnL
-$5.63
Record
32%
925-1945 (2870)
Invested
$4.26
Value
—
PnL
-$4.26
Record
37%
1244-2078 (3322)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
—
PnL
-$0.98
Record
48%
1355-1450 (2805)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$1.33
Record
38%
1261-2069 (3330)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $128.87
ply-pm2
Down — $106.6
soswald1
Down — $65.23
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $37
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $29
ohioism
Down — $10
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0