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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$762.34

Combined PnL

-$28.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$267.34

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$4.92

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$33.26

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$501.7	$495	-$3.4	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$248.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$251.7	—	-$251.7
SO soswald1	Upavg 50.5¢	$153.3	$155	+$5.1	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 91.6¢	$83.16	$69.31	-$13.85	54% 2087-1785 (3872)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$11.93	$19.07	+$7.15	42% 1063-1475 (2538)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15.5	—	-$15.5	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81¢	$10.48	$12.94	+$2.46	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4	$8	+$4	48% 1104-1185 (2289)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 98¢	$2.96	$3.02	+$0.06	38% 1254-2047 (3301)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 13.5¢	$1.52	—	-$1.52	41% 1381-1964 (3345)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.26	—	-$1.26	48% 1344-1445 (2789)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.08	—	-$0.08	51% 1257-1197 (2454)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 7.2¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	44% 1849-2382 (4231)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$5	—	-$5	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	50% 4145-4216 (8361)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$501.7

Value

$495

PnL

-$3.4

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Up$247.550¢+$248.3

Down$251.749.8¢-$251.7

Invested

$153.3

Value

$155

PnL

+$5.1

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Invested

$83.16

Value

$69.31

PnL

-$13.85

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

Invested

$11.93

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$7.15

Record

42%

1063-1475 (2538)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

—

PnL

-$15.5

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

Invested

$10.48

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$2.46

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

Invested

$4

Value

$8

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

1104-1185 (2289)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

38%

1254-2047 (3301)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

—

PnL

-$1.52

Record

41%

1381-1964 (3345)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

1344-1445 (2789)

Invested

$0.08

Value

—

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

1257-1197 (2454)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

44%

1849-2382 (4231)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

—

PnL

-$5.4

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa9f8a80a...520448

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794639000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $155

ply-pm2

Up — $69.31

13897651

Up — $19.07

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $12.94

PBot-5

Up — $8

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $3.02

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

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