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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$591.69

Combined PnL

-$462.08

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares640

Combined PnL-$468.09

Up2 traders

Total Value$10.08

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$6.01

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$521.14	$476.61	-$20.5	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$238.12	$476.61	+$236.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$260.33	—	-$257.25
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$105	-$26.75	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$68.88	—	-$69
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$52.5	$105	+$42.25
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 45.7¢	$108.35	—	-$108.35	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$79.98	—	-$75.13	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$35.08	—	-$35.08	42% 1063-1475 (2538)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 73¢	$14.6	—	-$14.6	52% 2405-2202 (4607)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$19.83	—	-$16.83	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.49	$7.45	+$5.96	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 69.7¢	$205.46	—	-$205.46	54% 2087-1785 (3872)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$5.62	—	-$5.62	32% 922-1922 (2844)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 11.1¢	$2.16	—	-$2.16	48% 1344-1445 (2789)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3	—	-$3	38% 1254-2047 (3301)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 98¢	$2.58	$2.63	+$0.05	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	44% 1849-2382 (4231)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$521.14

Value

$476.61

PnL

-$20.5

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Up$238.1250¢+$236.75

Down$260.3351¢-$257.25

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$105

PnL

-$26.75

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Both legs:

Down$68.8850¢-$69

Up$52.550¢+$42.25

Invested

$108.35

Value

—

PnL

-$108.35

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$79.98

Value

—

PnL

-$75.13

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$35.08

Value

—

PnL

-$35.08

Record

42%

1063-1475 (2538)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

—

PnL

-$14.6

Record

52%

2405-2202 (4607)

Invested

$19.83

Value

—

PnL

-$16.83

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

Invested

$1.49

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$5.96

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Invested

$205.46

Value

—

PnL

-$205.46

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

—

PnL

-$5.62

Record

32%

922-1922 (2844)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

—

PnL

-$2.16

Record

48%

1344-1445 (2789)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

1254-2047 (3301)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

44%

1849-2382 (4231)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x55050998...b7f0b1

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794636600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $0

13897651

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

suntori

Up — $7.45

ply-pm2

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

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