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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$625.9

Combined PnL

-$191.05

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$253.52

Down5 traders

Total Value$135.9

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$62.47

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$514.31	$490	-$13.8	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$259.23	—	-$256.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$242.4
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$41.32	—	-$41.32	42% 1063-1475 (2538)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 73¢	$121	—	-$121	54% 2087-1785 (3872)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$28.59	$39.09	+$10.5	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$37.26	—	-$37.26	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 44.8¢	$22.67	—	-$22.67	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$25.15	—	-$24.8	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 96.8¢	$24.2	$25	+$0.8	98% 3197-68 (3265)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 15.5¢	$3.58	$23.14	+$19.56	38% 1254-2047 (3301)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15.5	$31	+$15.5	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 8.9¢	$1.57	$17.68	+$16.11	32% 922-1922 (2844)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$5.55	—	-$5.55	48% 1860-2039 (3899)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 87¢	$0.87	—	-$0.87	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 1240-2064 (3304)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.31

Value

$490

PnL

-$13.8

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Up$259.2350.8¢-$256.2

Down$24550¢+$242.4

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$41.32

Value

—

PnL

-$41.32

Record

42%

1063-1475 (2538)

Invested

$121

Value

—

PnL

-$121

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$28.59

Value

$39.09

PnL

+$10.5

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$37.26

Value

—

PnL

-$37.26

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$22.67

Value

—

PnL

-$22.67

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$25.15

Value

—

PnL

-$24.8

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

Invested

$24.2

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.8

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.58

Value

$23.14

PnL

+$19.56

Record

38%

1254-2047 (3301)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$31

PnL

+$15.5

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

Invested

$1.57

Value

$17.68

PnL

+$16.11

Record

32%

922-1922 (2844)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

—

PnL

-$5.55

Record

48%

1860-2039 (3899)

Invested

$0.87

Value

—

PnL

-$0.87

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1240-2064 (3304)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5c52be2b...d3ed75

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794636000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

blue.birds

Down — $39.09

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $25

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $23.14

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $31

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