Solana Up or Down - November 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 99¢ · $737 held · ends Nov 14

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$736.53

Combined PnL

$8.63

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 98.5¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$236.89

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$18.03

Up1 trader

Total Value$1.61

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$9.4

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$508.49	$498.04	+$2.9	55% 3061-2517 (5578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$247.43	$325.54	+$78.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$249.6	$172.5	-$76
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 85.1¢	$97.86	$102.95	+$5.08	54% 2076-1762 (3838)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$39.57	$38.73	-$0.83	42% 1054-1466 (2520)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$16.85	$29.74	+$12.89	51% 2993-2903 (5896)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$27.87	$26.76	-$1.1	60% 3320-2225 (5545)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$22.28	$23.14	+$0.86	51% 2824-2718 (5542)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 85¢	$9.72	$10.66	+$0.94	50% 4118-4199 (8317)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$4.72	$4.9	+$0.18	38% 1247-2019 (3266)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 23.9¢	$11.01	$1.61	-$9.4	52% 4757-4448 (9205)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.49

Value

$498.04

PnL

+$2.9

Record

55%

3061-2517 (5578)

Both legs:

Down$247.4349.8¢+$78.9

Up$249.649.9¢-$76

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$97.86

Value

$102.95

PnL

+$5.08

Record

54%

2076-1762 (3838)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$39.57

Value

$38.73

PnL

-$0.83

Record

42%

1054-1466 (2520)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$16.85

Value

$29.74

PnL

+$12.89

Record

51%

2993-2903 (5896)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$27.87

Value

$26.76

PnL

-$1.1

Record

60%

3320-2225 (5545)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$22.28

Value

$23.14

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

2824-2718 (5542)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$9.72

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$0.94

Record

50%

4118-4199 (8317)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.18

Record

38%

1247-2019 (3266)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$11.01

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$9.4

Record

52%

4757-4448 (9205)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.