Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 40%
$245.85
-$514.99
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $514.62 | — | -$503.7 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $62.26 | $65.31 | +$3.06 | 54% 2059-1752 (3811) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $66.4 | $62.33 | -$4.07 | 42% 1045-1461 (2506) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $36.84 | $34 | -$2.84 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $27.58 | $27.67 | +$1.34 | 38% 1240-1996 (3236) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $12.75 | $15 | +$2.25 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $15.12 | $13.07 | -$2.05 | 48% 1324-1417 (2741) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $10.91 | $13.81 | +$2.9 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $11.5 | $10.64 | -$0.86 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $6.38 | $4.02 | -$0.41 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.69 | — | -$2.69 | 49% 1087-1154 (2241) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.53 | — | -$0.53 | 33% 909-1883 (2792) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.08 | — | -$0.08 | 51% 1235-1184 (2419) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $0.32 | — | -$0.32 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
Invested
$514.62
Value
—
PnL
-$503.7
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$62.26
Value
$65.31
PnL
+$3.06
Record
54%
2059-1752 (3811)
Invested
$66.4
Value
$62.33
PnL
-$4.07
Record
42%
1045-1461 (2506)
Invested
$36.84
Value
$34
PnL
-$2.84
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$27.58
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$1.34
Record
38%
1240-1996 (3236)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.25
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$15.12
Value
$13.07
PnL
-$2.05
Record
48%
1324-1417 (2741)
Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$13.81
PnL
+$2.9
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$10.64
PnL
-$0.86
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$0.41
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$2.69
Value
—
PnL
-$2.69
Record
49%
1087-1154 (2241)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.53
Value
—
PnL
-$0.53
Record
33%
909-1883 (2792)
Invested
$0.08
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
1235-1184 (2419)
Invested
$0.32
Value
—
PnL
-$0.32
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)