Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$300.66
-$494.91
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $509.04 | — | -$500.29 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$13.1 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $65 | — | -$61.9 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $50.96 | $49.99 | -$0.96 | 42% 1045-1461 (2506) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $28.25 | $31.27 | +$7.77 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $23.9 | $25.63 | +$2.85 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $10.46 | $18.5 | +$12.44 | 38% 1240-1996 (3236) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $8.35 | $9.27 | +$0.92 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.38 | $6 | +$4.62 | 41% 1336-1928 (3264) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 33% 909-1883 (2792) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 64% 2208-1239 (3447) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 50% 2202-2243 (4445) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.9¢ | $3.05 | — | -$3.05 | 54% 2059-1752 (3811) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $11.55 | — | -$11.55 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
Invested
$509.04
Value
—
PnL
-$500.29
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$13.1
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.96
Value
$49.99
PnL
-$0.96
Record
42%
1045-1461 (2506)
Invested
$28.25
Value
$31.27
PnL
+$7.77
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$23.9
Value
$25.63
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$10.46
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$12.44
Record
38%
1240-1996 (3236)
Invested
$9
Value
$10
PnL
+$1
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$9.27
PnL
+$0.92
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.62
Record
41%
1336-1928 (3264)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
33%
909-1883 (2792)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
64%
2208-1239 (3447)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
50%
2202-2243 (4445)
Invested
$3.05
Value
—
PnL
-$3.05
Record
54%
2059-1752 (3811)
Invested
$11.55
Value
—
PnL
-$11.55
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Up — $49.99
asdcaxz
Up — $31.27
blue.birds
Up — $25.63
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $18.5
aaa221
Up — $10
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $9.27
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $6
ohioism
CTRDown — $0