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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$625.08

Combined PnL

-$139.07

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$152.13

Down5 traders

Total Value$119.99

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$13.05

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$509.4	$505.1	+$7.99	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$254.37	$505.1	+$252.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	—	-$244.2
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50.1¢	$152.7	—	-$127.18	51% 2752-2659 (5411)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$55.97	$54.59	-$1.38	41% 966-1381 (2347)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 98¢	$22.05	$22.5	+$0.45	32% 829-1726 (2555)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 67¢	$22.46	$33.52	+$11.06	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 35.5¢	$13.6	—	-$13.6	49% 3898-3999 (7897)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 60¢	$3.2	$5.33	+$2.13	38% 1119-1814 (2933)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$3.26	$4.05	+$0.79	63% 3391-2033 (5424)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$3.57	—	-$3.57	48% 1198-1305 (2503)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.03	—	-$0.03	38% 1131-1839 (2970)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$6.85	—	-$6.85	55% 1559-1298 (2857)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$0.89	—	-$0.89	48% 1683-1811 (3494)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$509.4

Value

$505.1

PnL

+$7.99

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Down$254.3750.4¢+$252.19

Up$24550¢-$244.2

Invested

$152.7

Value

—

PnL

-$127.18

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

Invested

$55.97

Value

$54.59

PnL

-$1.38

Record

41%

966-1381 (2347)

Invested

$22.05

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

32%

829-1726 (2555)

Invested

$22.46

Value

$33.52

PnL

+$11.06

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

—

PnL

-$13.6

Record

49%

3898-3999 (7897)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$2.13

Record

38%

1119-1814 (2933)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.79

Record

63%

3391-2033 (5424)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

—

PnL

-$3.57

Record

48%

1198-1305 (2503)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.03

Value

—

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1131-1839 (2970)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

—

PnL

-$6.85

Record

55%

1559-1298 (2857)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

—

PnL

-$0.89

Record

48%

1683-1811 (3494)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa0ea4878...200a70

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794594900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $54.59

pspspsps5

Down — $22.5

ply-pm2

Down — $33.52

asdcaxz

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $5.33

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $4.05

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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