Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$137.2

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$542.4

Total Shares542

Combined PnL+$275.12

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares491

Combined PnL-$412.32

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$529.86	$501.55	+$4.5	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$254.53	—	-$248.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$243.09	$501.55	+$252.6
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 31.2¢	$204.27	$336.4	+$132.13	54% 1831-1588 (3419)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$122.39	$152.83	+$30.44	41% 943-1372 (2315)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.6¢	$40.62	$152.83	+$112.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$81.77	—	-$81.77
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 71¢	$166.83	—	-$160.99	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$88.93	—	-$88.47	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 69.1¢	$100.75	—	-$100.75	51% 2709-2618 (5327)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$44.15	—	-$44.15	49% 3855-3967 (7822)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 24.1¢	$25.85	$107.32	+$81.47	50% 1861-1835 (3696)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$23.52	$44.5	+$20.98	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.85	$9.89	+$5.04	47% 1647-1881 (3528)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 20¢	$4	$15	+$12.15	60% 3027-2022 (5049)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 28¢	$1.9	$6.79	+$4.89	38% 1088-1781 (2869)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 17.9¢	$2.59	$14.45	+$11.86	47% 1170-1297 (2467)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.45	$8.06	+$6.61	49% 1967-2021 (3988)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 7.6¢	$4.67	—	-$4.67	46% 2065-2415 (4480)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$23.7	—	-$13.29	62% 3328-1998 (5326)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$529.86

Value

$501.55

PnL

+$4.5

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

Both legs:

Up$254.5350.9¢-$248.1

Down$243.0948.5¢+$252.6

Invested

$204.27

Value

$336.4

PnL

+$132.13

Record

54%

1831-1588 (3419)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$122.39

Value

$152.83

PnL

+$30.44

Record

41%

943-1372 (2315)

Both legs:

Down$40.6226.6¢+$112.21

Up$81.7764.2¢-$81.77

Invested

$166.83

Value

—

PnL

-$160.99

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$88.93

Value

—

PnL

-$88.47

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

Invested

$100.75

Value

—

PnL

-$100.75

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$44.15

Value

—

PnL

-$44.15

Record

49%

3855-3967 (7822)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$25.85

Value

$107.32

PnL

+$81.47

Record

50%

1861-1835 (3696)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$23.52

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$20.98

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$5.04

Record

47%

1647-1881 (3528)

Invested

$4

Value

$15

PnL

+$12.15

Record

60%

3027-2022 (5049)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$4.89

Record

38%

1088-1781 (2869)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$11.86

Record

47%

1170-1297 (2467)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$6.61

Record

49%

1967-2021 (3988)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

—

PnL

-$4.67

Record

46%

2065-2415 (4480)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

—

PnL

-$13.29

Record

62%

3328-1998 (5326)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x87ec542b...c79b01

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794587700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $336.4

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $107.32

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $44.5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $9.89

Trade on Polymarket