Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 36%
$313.93
-$496.56
Smart Money Signal
5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $125.66 | $130.4 | +$4.73 | 39% 787-1252 (2039) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $73.85 | $86.45 | +$12.6 | 51% 2285-2228 (4513) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $40.4 | $30 | -$10.4 | 52% 4183-3927 (8110) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $16.59 | $25.92 | +$9.33 | 48% 885-942 (1827) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $8.91 | $9.19 | +$0.28 | 63% 1680-978 (2658) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $8.91 | $9 | +$0.09 | 66% 2393-1213 (3606) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $10.36 | $8 | -$2.3 | 62% 2807-1686 (4493) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $7.84 | $8 | +$0.16 | 48% 1620-1725 (3345) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 98% 2427-48 (2475) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $2.34 | — | -$2.34 | 38% 748-1242 (1990) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 49% 3543-3653 (7196) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.7¢ | $1.46 | — | -$1.46 | 33% 691-1396 (2087) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $0.97 | $0.98 | +$0.01 | 73% 1122-407 (1529) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.7¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 39% 906-1439 (2345) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Invested
$125.66
Value
$130.4
PnL
+$4.73
Record
39%
787-1252 (2039)
Invested
$73.85
Value
$86.45
PnL
+$12.6
Record
51%
2285-2228 (4513)
Invested
$40.4
Value
$30
PnL
-$10.4
Record
52%
4183-3927 (8110)
Invested
$16.59
Value
$25.92
PnL
+$9.33
Record
48%
885-942 (1827)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.19
PnL
+$0.28
Record
63%
1680-978 (2658)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.09
Record
66%
2393-1213 (3606)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$8
PnL
-$2.3
Record
62%
2807-1686 (4493)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.16
Record
48%
1620-1725 (3345)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
98%
2427-48 (2475)
Invested
$2.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
38%
748-1242 (1990)
Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
49%
3543-3653 (7196)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.46
Value
—
PnL
-$1.46
Record
33%
691-1396 (2087)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
73%
1122-407 (1529)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
39%
906-1439 (2345)