Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 40%
$220.92
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$731.94 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $67.28 | $68.65 | +$1.37 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $27.9 | $35.68 | +$7.78 | 39% 781-1243 (2024) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $44.85 | $59.58 | +$14.74 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $25.65 | $27 | +$1.35 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $5.94 | $6.01 | +$0.07 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.02 | $5 | -$1.02 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.1 | $5 | -$1.1 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $3.9 | $4 | +$0.1 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $1.56 | — | -$1.56 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$731.94
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$67.28
Value
$68.65
PnL
+$1.37
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$35.68
PnL
+$7.78
Record
39%
781-1243 (2024)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$59.58
PnL
+$14.74
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$25.65
Value
$27
PnL
+$1.35
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$9
Value
$10
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.01
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.02
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.1
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
Invested
$1.56
Value
—
PnL
-$1.56
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)