Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 53%
$780.49
-$702.53
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$706.61 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $88.15 | $91.14 | +$2.99 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $44.15 | $57.44 | +$13.29 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $44.32 | $50.61 | +$6.29 | 39% 781-1243 (2024) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.3¢ | $23.81 | — | -$23.81 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $17.5 | $25.36 | +$7.86 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 64.8¢ | $13.89 | $19.94 | +$6.05 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $10 | +$1.6 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $6.76 | $13.26 | +$6.5 | 48% 800-859 (1659) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $9.36 | $12.74 | +$3.38 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.5¢ | $2.48 | — | -$2.48 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 10.6¢ | $2.57 | — | -$2.64 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.5¢ | $25.21 | — | -$4.53 | 47% 975-1099 (2074) |
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$706.61
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$88.15
Value
$91.14
PnL
+$2.99
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$44.15
Value
$57.44
PnL
+$13.29
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$44.32
Value
$50.61
PnL
+$6.29
Record
39%
781-1243 (2024)
Invested
$23.81
Value
—
PnL
-$23.81
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$7.86
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$6.05
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$6.5
Record
48%
800-859 (1659)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$3.38
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$2.48
Value
—
PnL
-$2.48
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$2.57
Value
—
PnL
-$2.64
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$25.21
Value
—
PnL
-$4.53
Record
47%
975-1099 (2074)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
asdcaxz
Up — $91.14
ply-pm2
Up — $57.44
13897651
Up — $50.61
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $25.36
aaa221
Up — $19.94
uninformedfloww
Up — $10
PBot-5
Up — $13.26