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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$949.02

Combined PnL

-$495.87

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$508.66

Down8 traders

Total Value$214.02

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$12.79

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$735	+$1.3	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$367.5	$735	+$369.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$361.88	—	-$367.8
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$43.27	$45	+$1.73	49% 3525-3636 (7161)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$49.13	$44.34	-$4.78	39% 781-1243 (2024)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$33.64	$41.59	+$7.95	54% 1677-1430 (3107)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$28.24	$29.25	+$1.01	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$21.7	$25.13	+$3.43	55% 1432-1173 (2605)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$30.82	$12.5	+$1.82	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 89¢	$8.9	$10	+$1.1	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$5.68	$6.21	+$0.53	63% 2780-1667 (4447)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$5	—	-$5	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$1.75	—	-$1.75	52% 1810-1682 (3492)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.47	—	-$1.47	47% 975-1099 (2074)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$0.44	—	-$0.44	33% 686-1380 (2066)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$735

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

Both legs:

Down$367.550¢+$369.1

Up$361.8850¢-$367.8

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Invested

$43.27

Value

$45

PnL

+$1.73

Record

49%

3525-3636 (7161)

Invested

$49.13

Value

$44.34

PnL

-$4.78

Record

39%

781-1243 (2024)

Invested

$33.64

Value

$41.59

PnL

+$7.95

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$28.24

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$21.7

Value

$25.13

PnL

+$3.43

Record

55%

1432-1173 (2605)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$30.82

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$1.82

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

Invested

$8.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.1

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.53

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

52%

1810-1682 (3492)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

—

PnL

-$1.47

Record

47%

975-1099 (2074)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

—

PnL

-$0.44

Record

33%

686-1380 (2066)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb363e783...7889dc

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794519900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $45

13897651

Down — $44.34

ply-pm2

Down — $41.59

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $29.25

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $25.13

blue.birds

Down — $12.5

aaa221

Down — $10

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $6.21

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