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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$446.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 12 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares516
Combined PnL-$506.85
Down9 traders
Total Value$343.88
Total Shares344
Combined PnL+$60.17
Up — 25%Down — 75%
SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$750

Value

$720

PnL

+$14.35

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

Both legs:

Down$36050¢+$357.5
Up$319.5250¢-$343.15
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$84.53

Value

$60.27

PnL

-$24.26

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

Both legs:

Up$48.2336.4¢-$48.23
Down$36.360.2¢+$23.97
AS
asdcaxz<$100
Down

Invested

$87.45

Value

$88

PnL

+$1.99

Record

49%

3525-3636 (7161)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$78.89

Value

$79.9

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

13
13897651ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$55.79

Value

$50.32

PnL

-$5.47

Record

39%

781-1243 (2024)

Both legs:

Up$25.4226.5¢-$25.42
Down$30.3660.3¢+$19.96
BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$46.21

Value

$69.2

PnL

+$22.99

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100
Down

Invested

$16.4

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$9.01

Record

55%

1432-1173 (2605)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$30.39

Value

$37.86

PnL

+$7.47

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$8.96

Value

$14.57

PnL

+$5.61

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Down

Invested

$6.86

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$5.24

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

PB
PBot-6<$100
Down

Invested

$5

Value

$10

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

481-481 (962)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

48%

1242-1341 (2583)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Down

Invested

$4.99

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$1.85

Record

38%

927-1543 (2470)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.85

Value

—

PnL

-$1.85

Record

39%

895-1424 (2319)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x614bcfb1...16a194
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794519600

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.35
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$24.26
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $88

+$1.99
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $79.9

+$1.01
13

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$5.47
BL

blue.birds

Down — $69.2

+$22.99
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $25.41

+$9.01
AA

aaa221

Down — $37.86

+$7.47
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $14.57

+$5.61
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