Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 70%
1 arb excluded
$620.3
-$7.9
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $505.31 | $496.01 | -$0.15 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $247.32 | $496.01 | +$250.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $251.01 | — | -$251.01 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $77.33 | $79.43 | +$2.1 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $32 | $34.76 | +$2.76 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $4.6 | $10.11 | +$5.51 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $11 | — | -$2.5 | 49% 3518-3623 (7141) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $0.22 | — | -$0.22 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.7¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $6.52 | — | -$6.52 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.6¢ | $2.39 | — | -$2.39 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.3¢ | $2.14 | — | -$1.78 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
Invested
$505.31
Value
$496.01
PnL
-$0.15
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.33
Value
$79.43
PnL
+$2.1
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
Invested
$32
Value
$34.76
PnL
+$2.76
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$5.51
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
49%
3518-3623 (7141)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
—
PnL
-$0.22
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$6.52
Value
—
PnL
-$6.52
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.39
Value
—
PnL
-$2.39
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$2.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.78
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)