Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$143.7
Smart Money Signal
5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $725 | -$2.85 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $520.79 | $490 | -$2.96 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $246.65 | $490 | +$245.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $250.43 | — | -$248.81 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $62.16 | $65.5 | +$5.18 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $52.45 | $55.16 | +$2.7 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.4¢ | $26.2 | — | -$26.2 | 49% 3518-3623 (7141) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $46 | — | -$46 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $13.05 | $15 | +$1.95 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $8.9 | — | -$8.9 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $4 | $5.03 | +$1.03 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $3.44 | — | -$3.44 | 37% 901-1503 (2404) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $0.89 | — | -$0.89 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $0.49 | — | -$0.49 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $94.19 | — | -$54.19 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $4.35 | — | -$4.35 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
Invested
$750
Value
$725
PnL
-$2.85
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$520.79
Value
$490
PnL
-$2.96
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.16
Value
$65.5
PnL
+$5.18
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$52.45
Value
$55.16
PnL
+$2.7
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
Invested
$26.2
Value
—
PnL
-$26.2
Record
49%
3518-3623 (7141)
Invested
$46
Value
—
PnL
-$46
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.95
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.9
Value
—
PnL
-$8.9
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$1.03
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
Invested
$3.44
Value
—
PnL
-$3.44
Record
37%
901-1503 (2404)
Invested
$0.89
Value
—
PnL
-$0.89
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$0.49
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
Invested
$94.19
Value
—
PnL
-$54.19
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
—
PnL
-$4.35
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
soswald1
Down — $725
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $65.5
13897651
Down — $55.16
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $15
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $5.03
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0