Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$724.84
-$25.51
Smart Money Signal
10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $506.69 | $494.45 | +$2.75 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $245.21 | $494.45 | +$250.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $249.6 | — | -$248.15 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $82.18 | $100.22 | +$18.04 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $37.53 | $36.86 | -$0.67 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $15.09 | $23.63 | +$8.54 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $19.67 | $21.9 | +$2.23 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $11.59 | $11 | -$1.02 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.3¢ | $22.4 | — | -$22.4 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $13.47 | $9 | -$4.47 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $7.48 | $8.38 | +$0.89 | 63% 1621-961 (2582) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $4.62 | $8.4 | +$3.78 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $1.62 | $6 | +$4.38 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 11.5¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.6¢ | $23.02 | — | -$23.02 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.4¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 37% 901-1503 (2404) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.3¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
Invested
$506.69
Value
$494.45
PnL
+$2.75
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.18
Value
$100.22
PnL
+$18.04
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
Invested
$37.53
Value
$36.86
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$15.09
Value
$23.63
PnL
+$8.54
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
Invested
$19.67
Value
$21.9
PnL
+$2.23
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$11.59
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.02
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$22.4
Value
—
PnL
-$22.4
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$9
PnL
-$4.47
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$8.38
PnL
+$0.89
Record
63%
1621-961 (2582)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$3.78
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.38
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$23.02
Value
—
PnL
-$23.02
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
37%
901-1503 (2404)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $100.22
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $36.86
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $23.63
soswald1
Down — $21.9
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $11
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $9
asidjasiodja
Down — $8.38
asdaefef
Down — $8.4