Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 53%
$467.44
-$559.68
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$481.4 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 33.4¢ | $138.14 | — | -$138.14 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 66.4¢ | $76.01 | $114.54 | +$38.53 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 95.1¢ | $85.55 | $90 | +$4.45 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $45.38 | $69.29 | +$23.91 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $37.42 | $57.98 | +$20.56 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $45.69 | $59 | +$13.31 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $32.65 | $45.69 | +$13.04 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $14.33 | $19.53 | +$5.2 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $12.39 | — | -$12.39 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $10.35 | — | -$10.35 | 46% 1320-1541 (2861) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $9.75 | — | -$9.75 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $10 | +$3.3 | 52% 1784-1636 (3420) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $6.1 | — | -$6.1 | 48% 1336-1466 (2802) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $3.16 | — | -$3.16 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 44% 1344-1706 (3050) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $1.14 | $1.42 | +$0.28 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $5.92 | — | -$0.88 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$481.4
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$138.14
Value
—
PnL
-$138.14
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$76.01
Value
$114.54
PnL
+$38.53
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$85.55
Value
$90
PnL
+$4.45
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$45.38
Value
$69.29
PnL
+$23.91
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
Invested
$37.42
Value
$57.98
PnL
+$20.56
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$45.69
Value
$59
PnL
+$13.31
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$32.65
Value
$45.69
PnL
+$13.04
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$14.33
Value
$19.53
PnL
+$5.2
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$12.39
Value
—
PnL
-$12.39
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$10.35
Value
—
PnL
-$10.35
Record
46%
1320-1541 (2861)
Invested
$9.75
Value
—
PnL
-$9.75
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.3
Record
52%
1784-1636 (3420)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
—
PnL
-$6.1
Record
48%
1336-1466 (2802)
Invested
$3.16
Value
—
PnL
-$3.16
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
44%
1344-1706 (3050)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$0.28
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$5.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.88
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $114.54
hoodquant
Down — $90
13897651
Down — $69.29
soswald1
Down — $57.98
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $59
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $45.69
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $19.53
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0