Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$539.05
-$46.99
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $501.46 | $490 | -$0.75 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$247.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $248.96 | — | -$248.65 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $44.66 | $27.59 | -$17.08 | 39% 768-1224 (1992) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 35.6¢ | $24.13 | — | -$24.13 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $12.3 | $10 | -$2.3 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $4.28 | $6.09 | +$1.81 | 62% 2708-1636 (4344) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $4.25 | $5.38 | +$1.13 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 7.3¢ | $2.36 | — | -$2.36 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 39% 873-1384 (2257) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $0.79 | — | -$0.79 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
Invested
$501.46
Value
$490
PnL
-$0.75
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.66
Value
$27.59
PnL
-$17.08
Record
39%
768-1224 (1992)
Invested
$24.13
Value
—
PnL
-$24.13
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.3
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$6.09
PnL
+$1.81
Record
62%
2708-1636 (4344)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$1.13
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
—
PnL
-$2.36
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
39%
873-1384 (2257)
Invested
$0.79
Value
—
PnL
-$0.79
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)