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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 54%

Total Value

$36.03

Combined PnL

-$595.98

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares649

Combined PnL-$598.91

Up6 traders

Total Value$36.03

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$2.93

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.4¢	$506.8	—	-$498.17	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$44.53	—	-$44.53	39% 768-1224 (1992)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 73¢	$9.73	$7	-$2.73	52% 4124-3876 (8000)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 68¢	$24.7	—	-$24.7	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$14.04	—	-$14.04	51% 2225-2153 (4378)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$6.93	$7	+$0.07	66% 2317-1186 (3503)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.38	$6	+$4.62	37% 679-1149 (1828)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	63% 1621-961 (2582)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$4.17	$5.03	+$0.86	62% 2708-1636 (4344)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	48% 1558-1684 (3242)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$2.17	—	-$2.17	47% 959-1076 (2035)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 23.8¢	$3.69	—	-$3.69	39% 873-1384 (2257)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$11.6	—	-$11.6	55% 1381-1151 (2532)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$506.8

Value

—

PnL

-$498.17

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$44.53

Value

—

PnL

-$44.53

Record

39%

768-1224 (1992)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$7

PnL

-$2.73

Record

52%

4124-3876 (8000)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$24.7

Value

—

PnL

-$24.7

Record

54%

1637-1402 (3039)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

—

PnL

-$14.04

Record

51%

2225-2153 (4378)

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

66%

2317-1186 (3503)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.62

Record

37%

679-1149 (1828)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

1621-961 (2582)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.17

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.86

Record

62%

2708-1636 (4344)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

1558-1684 (3242)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

—

PnL

-$2.17

Record

47%

959-1076 (2035)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

—

PnL

-$3.69

Record

39%

873-1384 (2257)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$11.6

Value

—

PnL

-$11.6

Record

55%

1381-1151 (2532)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x35d76b56...6b1e1a

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794512400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

13897651

Down — $0

blue.birds

Up — $7

ply-pm2

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $7

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

asidjasiodja

Up — $6

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5.03

dvasdkasodk

Up — $5

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