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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 44%

Total Value

$104.02

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,328

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down5 traders

Total Value$104.02

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$19.27

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	—	-$728.14	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$506.79	—	-$496.2	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$33.53	$46.35	+$12.83	38% 746-1216 (1962)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$40.47	$43.49	+$3.02	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 55¢	$2.85	$5.18	+$2.33	39% 852-1352 (2204)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75¢	$3	$4	+$1	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 39.8¢	$16.8	—	-$16.8	51% 1376-1320 (2696)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 33.9¢	$13.7	—	-$13.7	52% 4097-3832 (7929)

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$728.14

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$506.79

Value

—

PnL

-$496.2

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Invested

$33.53

Value

$46.35

PnL

+$12.83

Record

38%

746-1216 (1962)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$40.47

Value

$43.49

PnL

+$3.02

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$2.33

Record

39%

852-1352 (2204)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3

Value

$4

PnL

+$1

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

—

PnL

-$16.8

Record

51%

1376-1320 (2696)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

—

PnL

-$13.7

Record

52%

4097-3832 (7929)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x01476242...155aa4

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794504900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $46.35

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $43.49

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $5.18

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $4

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

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