Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (31%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $725 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 31%

Total Value

$725.01

Combined PnL

$10.82

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$501.1

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$0.01

Down9 traders

Total Value$223.91

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$10.83

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 89.2¢	$62.19	$68.64	+$6.45	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$47.65	$49.64	+$1.99	33% 646-1294 (1940)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 90.4¢	$42.42	$40.2	-$2.22	38% 732-1200 (1932)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$24.38	$27.2	+$2.81	51% 2130-2057 (4187)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$16.68	$17.67	+$0.99	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89¢	$9.1	$10.1	+$1	39% 828-1318 (2146)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$4.85	$5.05	+$0.2	63% 1554-926 (2480)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 82¢	$4.27	$4.4	+$0.13	44% 1290-1624 (2914)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 76¢	$1.54	$1.01	-$0.53	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1	$1	+$0	48% 1171-1273 (2444)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.06	$0.05	-$0.01	38% 650-1081 (1731)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.05	+$0	38% 866-1417 (2283)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$62.19

Value

$68.64

PnL

+$6.45

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$47.65

Value

$49.64

PnL

+$1.99

Record

33%

646-1294 (1940)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$42.42

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$2.22

Record

38%

732-1200 (1932)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$24.38

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$2.81

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$16.68

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$0.99

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

828-1318 (2146)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.2

Record

63%

1554-926 (2480)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.13

Record

44%

1290-1624 (2914)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1171-1273 (2444)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

650-1081 (1731)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

866-1417 (2283)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.