Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $545 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

Total Value

$545.03

Combined PnL

-$12.04

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$500.32

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$1.39

Down5 traders

Total Value$44.71

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$10.64

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 90.7¢	$18.84	$20.66	+$1.82	39% 828-1318 (2146)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$26.62	$16.37	-$10.24	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.16	$4.18	+$0.02	33% 646-1294 (1940)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 84¢	$4.2	$2.5	-$1.7	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77¢	$1.54	$1	-$0.54	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 8.1¢	$1.71	$0.32	-$1.39	38% 732-1200 (1932)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$18.84

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$1.82

Record

39%

828-1318 (2146)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$26.62

Value

$16.37

PnL

-$10.24

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

646-1294 (1940)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$4.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.54

Value

PnL

-$0.54

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.39

Record

38%

732-1200 (1932)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.