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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 38%

Total Value

$259.87

Combined PnL

-$634.47

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$663.25

Down8 traders

Total Value$259.87

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$28.77

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 51.5¢	$126.56	—	-$126.56	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$64.89	$66.84	+$1.95	38% 714-1185 (1899)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$60.7	$65.65	+$9.15	51% 2068-2013 (4081)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$65.01	$58.22	-$6.79	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 26.1¢	$55.94	—	-$25.86	54% 1521-1314 (2835)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$18.5	$21.05	+$2.55	47% 870-993 (1863)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 47¢	$7.05	$15	+$7.95	48% 1250-1346 (2596)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$11.15	$12.94	+$3.07	62% 2512-1527 (4039)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$6.57	—	-$6.57	39% 807-1277 (2084)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$7.05	$15	+$7.95	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 43¢	$2.23	$5.18	+$2.95	74% 1022-354 (1376)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$4.25	—	-$4.25	44% 1249-1571 (2820)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Invested

$126.56

Value

—

PnL

-$126.56

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

Invested

$64.89

Value

$66.84

PnL

+$1.95

Record

38%

714-1185 (1899)

Invested

$60.7

Value

$65.65

PnL

+$9.15

Record

51%

2068-2013 (4081)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$65.01

Value

$58.22

PnL

-$6.79

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$55.94

Value

—

PnL

-$25.86

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$2.55

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

Invested

$7.05

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.95

Record

48%

1250-1346 (2596)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$3.07

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

—

PnL

-$6.57

Record

39%

807-1277 (2084)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.95

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

Invested

$2.23

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$2.95

Record

74%

1022-354 (1376)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

—

PnL

-$4.25

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x38a4ff55...f23e18

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794492300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $66.84

soswald1

Down — $65.65

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $58.22

ply-pm2

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $21.05

ohioism

Down — $15

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $12.94

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

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