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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 50%

Total Value

$129.93

Combined PnL

-$494.06

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares583

Combined PnL-$512.81

Down7 traders

Total Value$129.93

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$18.75

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$51.24	$55.63	+$4.39	38% 714-1185 (1899)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$17.67	$19.13	+$1.46	39% 807-1277 (2084)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$10.55	$15	+$4.45	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$12	$13.13	+$1.13	62% 2512-1527 (4039)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 51¢	$5.1	$10	+$4.9	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 92¢	$9.2	$10	+$0.8	51% 2068-2013 (4081)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 77¢	$5.42	$7.04	+$1.62	54% 1521-1314 (2835)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 12.4¢	$3.13	—	-$3.13	33% 629-1260 (1889)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.7	—	-$1.7	44% 1249-1571 (2820)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	52% 1296-1214 (2510)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.73	—	-$2.73	49% 727-769 (1496)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$0.57	—	-$0.57	47% 870-993 (1863)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$1.28	—	-$1.28	48% 1442-1566 (3008)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Invested

$51.24

Value

$55.63

PnL

+$4.39

Record

38%

714-1185 (1899)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$17.67

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$1.46

Record

39%

807-1277 (2084)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.45

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$1.13

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.9

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.8

Record

51%

2068-2013 (4081)

Invested

$5.42

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$1.62

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.13

Value

—

PnL

-$3.13

Record

33%

629-1260 (1889)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

52%

1296-1214 (2510)

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

49%

727-769 (1496)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

—

PnL

-$0.57

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

—

PnL

-$1.28

Record

48%

1442-1566 (3008)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8a1ddda9...d86e43

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794490500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $55.63

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $19.13

blue.birds

Down — $15

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $13.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $10

soswald1

Down — $10

ply-pm2

Down — $7.04

pspspsps5

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

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