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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$509.77

Combined PnL

-$492.64

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares518
Combined PnL-$508.63
Down9 traders
Total Value$159.77
Total Shares160
Combined PnL+$15.99
Up — 25%Down — 75%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$10.37

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$17550¢+$175
Up$15650¢-$164.63
BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$49.06

Value

$45

PnL

-$4.06

Record

52%

3991-3735 (7726)

13
13897651<$100
Down

Invested

$32.68

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$0.18

Record

37%

700-1167 (1867)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$25.57

Value

$36

PnL

+$10.43

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$14.58

Value

$22

PnL

+$7.42

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.07

Value

—

PnL

-$8.07

Record

48%

1106-1197 (2303)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Down

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$0.59

Record

39%

786-1234 (2020)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.51

Record

62%

1464-882 (2346)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$4.65

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.4

Record

66%

2096-1059 (3155)

pspspsps5<$100
Down

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.4

Record

33%

613-1228 (1841)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.48

Record

62%

2406-1470 (3876)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.56

Value

—

PnL

-$0.56

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xdc0bf403...53b072
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794486300

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$10.37
BL

blue.birds

Down — $45

-$4.06
13

13897651

Down — $32.5

-$0.18
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $36

+$10.43
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $22

+$7.42
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$8.07

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $7.63

+$0.59
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $5.11

+$0.51
AS

asdaefef

Down — $5.05

+$0.4
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