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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 45%

Total Value

$213.09

Combined PnL

-$528.9

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares637

Combined PnL-$542.43

Down6 traders

Total Value$213.09

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$13.53

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 99¢	$91.11	$90.71	-$0.4	39% 760-1197 (1957)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 92.4¢	$55.13	$57.83	+$2.7	37% 685-1150 (1835)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$20.56	—	-$20.56	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$19.5	—	-$19.5	48% 1079-1166 (2245)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$14.26	$18.32	+$4.06	50% 1101-1104 (2205)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$13.98	$13.99	+$0.01	48% 784-863 (1647)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74¢	$20.14	$27.21	+$7.07	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98.3¢	$4.95	$5.03	+$0.08	67% 2047-1024 (3071)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.84	—	-$1.85	62% 2344-1434 (3778)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.52	—	-$0.52	44% 1174-1476 (2650)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$91.11

Value

$90.71

PnL

-$0.4

Record

39%

760-1197 (1957)

Invested

$55.13

Value

$57.83

PnL

+$2.7

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$20.56

Value

—

PnL

-$20.56

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

—

PnL

-$19.5

Record

48%

1079-1166 (2245)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$4.06

Record

50%

1101-1104 (2205)

Invested

$13.98

Value

$13.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

784-863 (1647)

Invested

$20.14

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$7.07

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

67%

2047-1024 (3071)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$2.84

Value

—

PnL

-$1.85

Record

62%

2344-1434 (3778)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

—

PnL

-$0.52

Record

44%

1174-1476 (2650)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9c6d37a1...9c8254

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794478200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $90.71

13897651

Down — $57.83

38791873984189

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $18.32

0x50f7

Down — $13.99

ply-pm2

Down — $27.21

asdaefef

Down — $5.03

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $0

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