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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 30%

Total Value

$180.01

Combined PnL

-$515.31

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$519.76

Down7 traders

Total Value$180.01

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$4.45

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 81¢	$42.79	$43.19	+$0.4	37% 685-1150 (1835)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$42.96	$45	+$2.04	39% 760-1197 (1957)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$34.25	$33.86	-$0.39	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 94¢	$21.62	$23	+$1.38	33% 596-1191 (1787)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$12.6	$15.32	+$2.72	50% 1101-1104 (2205)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$15.98	—	-$15.98	51% 1641-1598 (3239)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 82¢	$11.7	$10.12	-$1.58	51% 1494-1420 (2914)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$9.64	$9.52	-$0.12	62% 2344-1434 (3778)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 9.7¢	$3.78	—	-$3.78	52% 3955-3700 (7655)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

Invested

$42.79

Value

$43.19

PnL

+$0.4

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$42.96

Value

$45

PnL

+$2.04

Record

39%

760-1197 (1957)

Invested

$34.25

Value

$33.86

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

Invested

$21.62

Value

$23

PnL

+$1.38

Record

33%

596-1191 (1787)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$15.32

PnL

+$2.72

Record

50%

1101-1104 (2205)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

—

PnL

-$15.98

Record

51%

1641-1598 (3239)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$1.58

Record

51%

1494-1420 (2914)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.12

Record

62%

2344-1434 (3778)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

—

PnL

-$3.78

Record

52%

3955-3700 (7655)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4871b631...83d520

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794476400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $43.19

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $45

ply-pm2

Down — $33.86

pspspsps5

Down — $23

uninformedfloww

Down — $15.32

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $10.12

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $9.52

blue.birds

Up — $0

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