Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $975 held · ends Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$975.12

Combined PnL

$30.36

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$942.2

Total Shares950

Combined PnL+$43.74

Down4 traders

Total Value$32.92

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$13.38

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$295.09	$296.58	+$1.49	74% 923-319 (1242)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 42.6¢	$43.56	$66.7	+$23.14	52% 3931-3686 (7617)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$41.82	$53.3	+$11.48	37% 676-1142 (1818)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$23.09	$25.07	+$1.98	53% 1424-1248 (2672)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$5	$8	+$3	62% 2307-1419 (3726)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 64¢	$4.7	$7.31	+$2.61	38% 791-1314 (2105)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 39¢	$3.9	$6.25	+$2.35	46% 1129-1340 (2469)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$14.09	$4.85	-$5.86	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 73¢	$4.38	$4.05	-$0.33	39% 753-1174 (1927)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 62¢	$4.34	$2.63	-$1.71	47% 778-866 (1644)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$8.15	$0.38	-$7.78	55% 1188-970 (2158)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

BoneOhio

Invested

$295.09

Value

$296.58

PnL

+$1.49

Record

74%

923-319 (1242)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$66.7

PnL

+$23.14

Record

52%

3931-3686 (7617)

13897651<$100

Invested

$41.82

Value

$53.3

PnL

+$11.48

Record

37%

676-1142 (1818)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.09

Value

$25.07

PnL

+$1.98

Record

53%

1424-1248 (2672)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

62%

2307-1419 (3726)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$2.61

Record

38%

791-1314 (2105)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$2.35

Record

46%

1129-1340 (2469)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.09

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$5.86

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.33

Record

39%

753-1174 (1927)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.34

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$1.71

Record

47%

778-866 (1644)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.15

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$7.78

Record

55%

1188-970 (2158)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.