Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $575 held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$575.14

Combined PnL

-$12.29

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 100¢

+84% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$571.24

Total Shares575

Combined PnL+$1.73

Down4 traders

Total Value$3.9

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$14.02

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 88.6¢	$46.43	$44.43	-$1.99	37% 667-1136 (1803)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$15.75	$19.99	+$4.24	55% 1173-958 (2131)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 63¢	$5	$3.97	-$1.03	37% 778-1309 (2087)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$2.1	$2.17	+$0.07	47% 771-864 (1635)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75¢	$1.5	$2	+$0.5	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$1.13	$1.57	+$0.44	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 84¢	$0.84	$0.86	+$0.02	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 3.3¢	$9.89	$0.15	-$9.74	38% 578-951 (1529)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$4.8	$0.01	-$4.79	74% 910-315 (1225)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

13897651<$100

Invested

$46.43

Value

$44.43

PnL

-$1.99

Record

37%

667-1136 (1803)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$4.24

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$1.03

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

771-864 (1635)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.89

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.74

Record

38%

578-951 (1529)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.79

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.