Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 9 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$25.66

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$523.07

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$76.83

Down11 traders

Total Value$529.75

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$51.17

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
BoneOhio	Downavg 95.6¢	$207.82	$216.23	+$8.41	74% 910-315 (1225)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$59.52	$78.75	+$19.23	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$72.74	$72.5	-$0.24	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$59.51	$72.27	+$12.76	37% 667-1136 (1803)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$19.8	$28.94	+$9.14	51% 1455-1384 (2839)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 94¢	$22.22	$19.52	-$2.24	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 45.3¢	$14.59	$17.25	+$2.66	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$14.7	$15.38	+$0.68	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$14.55	$12.51	-$2.04	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.73	+$0.38	47% 1308-1484 (2792)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$14.36	$4.07	-$5.45	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.5	+$0.15	48% 658-722 (1380)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 38.5¢	$3.85	$2.05	-$1.8	55% 1173-958 (2131)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$41.27	$1.83	-$26.28	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 57¢	$1.43	$1.67	+$0.24	47% 771-864 (1635)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.2	$1.2	+$0	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.05	-$0.05	62% 1374-851 (2225)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$36.6	$0.32	-$36.28	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$4.96	$0.04	-$4.92	37% 778-1309 (2087)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$207.82

Value

$216.23

PnL

+$8.41

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$59.52

Value

$78.75

PnL

+$19.23

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$72.74

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$59.51

Value

$72.27

PnL

+$12.76

Record

37%

667-1136 (1803)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$19.8

Value

$28.94

PnL

+$9.14

Record

51%

1455-1384 (2839)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$22.22

Value

$19.52

PnL

-$2.24

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$14.59

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$2.66

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0.68

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$2.04

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.38

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$14.36

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$5.45

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

658-722 (1380)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$1.8

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$41.27

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$26.28

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

771-864 (1635)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$36.6

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$36.28

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.92

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.