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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$548.26

Combined PnL

-$173.75

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares420

Combined PnL-$200.31

Down6 traders

Total Value$53.24

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$26.55

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$504.56	$495.02	-$5.74	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$252.8	—	-$252.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$246.77	$495.02	+$247.06
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$72.03	—	-$72.03	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$51.81	—	-$51.81	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 38.6¢	$40.93	—	-$40.93	37% 667-1136 (1803)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 49¢	$7.5	$15.31	+$7.81	74% 910-315 (1225)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 35¢	$5.4	$15.43	+$10.03	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 76¢	$6.61	$7.09	+$0.5	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$5	+$2.8	55% 1173-958 (2131)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$13.77	—	-$13.77	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.5	$5.21	+$2.71	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.5	$5.21	+$2.71	62% 1374-851 (2225)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$2.1	—	-$2.1	51% 1455-1384 (2839)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$1.32	—	-$1.32	39% 737-1162 (1899)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$18.35	—	-$18.35	52% 3913-3669 (7582)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$504.56

Value

$495.02

PnL

-$5.74

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Both legs:

Up$252.850.1¢-$252.8

Down$246.7749.9¢+$247.06

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$72.03

Value

—

PnL

-$72.03

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$51.81

Value

—

PnL

-$51.81

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$40.93

Value

—

PnL

-$40.93

Record

37%

667-1136 (1803)

Invested

$7.5

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$7.81

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$15.43

PnL

+$10.03

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.5

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.8

Record

55%

1173-958 (2131)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

—

PnL

-$13.77

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

Invested

$2.5

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$2.71

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$2.71

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

—

PnL

-$2.1

Record

51%

1455-1384 (2839)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

—

PnL

-$1.32

Record

39%

737-1162 (1899)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

—

PnL

-$18.35

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc026f997...91f842

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794471600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $15.31

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $15.43

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $7.09

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $5

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $5.21

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