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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

Total Value

$101.96

Combined PnL

-$482.55

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares632

Combined PnL-$509.95

Up4 traders

Total Value$101.96

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$27.4

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$511.7	—	-$497.1	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 74¢	$48.5	$56.47	+$7.97	37% 667-1136 (1803)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 51¢	$19.38	$37.99	+$18.62	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 79¢	$4.33	$5.48	+$1.15	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 7.2¢	$4.15	—	-$4.15	39% 737-1162 (1899)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 79¢	$2.64	$2.03	-$0.33	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$1.38	—	-$1.38	48% 770-848 (1618)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$6	—	-$6	52% 3913-3669 (7582)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.02	—	-$0.02	33% 583-1160 (1743)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	47% 1159-1332 (2491)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$511.7

Value

—

PnL

-$497.1

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Invested

$48.5

Value

$56.47

PnL

+$7.97

Record

37%

667-1136 (1803)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$37.99

PnL

+$18.62

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$1.15

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

—

PnL

-$4.15

Record

39%

737-1162 (1899)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.33

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

Invested

$1.38

Value

—

PnL

-$1.38

Record

48%

770-848 (1618)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$6

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

52%

3913-3669 (7582)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.02

Value

—

PnL

-$0.02

Record

33%

583-1160 (1743)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdc7af951...6c688b

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794469500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

13897651

Up — $56.47

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $37.99

aaa221

Up — $5.48

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $2.03

0x50f7

Down — $0

blue.birds

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

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