Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$704.48
-$37.18
Smart Money Signal
6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $520.05 | $498.16 | +$8.63 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.4¢ | $247.41 | — | -$246.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $245.73 | $498.16 | +$254.73 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $69.46 | $93.66 | +$24.2 | 37% 667-1136 (1803) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.8¢ | $17.06 | — | -$17.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $52.4 | $93.66 | +$41.26 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.7¢ | $103.33 | $66.98 | -$10.09 | 52% 3913-3669 (7582) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.5¢ | $53.24 | — | -$15.55 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $17.59 | — | -$17.59 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $11.36 | $17.11 | +$5.75 | 47% 771-864 (1635) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $10 | +$3.1 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $9.68 | $6.84 | -$0.72 | 37% 778-1309 (2087) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $4.45 | $10 | +$5.55 | 47% 1159-1332 (2491) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $0.46 | — | -$0.46 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $0.52 | — | -$0.52 | 62% 1374-851 (2225) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $1.72 | +$1 | 48% 1046-1143 (2189) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $5.76 | — | -$5.76 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $1.86 | — | -$0.22 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
Invested
$520.05
Value
$498.16
PnL
+$8.63
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.46
Value
$93.66
PnL
+$24.2
Record
37%
667-1136 (1803)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.33
Value
$66.98
PnL
-$10.09
Record
52%
3913-3669 (7582)
Invested
$53.24
Value
—
PnL
-$15.55
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$17.59
Value
—
PnL
-$17.59
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$11.36
Value
$17.11
PnL
+$5.75
Record
47%
771-864 (1635)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.1
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.72
Record
37%
778-1309 (2087)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.55
Record
47%
1159-1332 (2491)
Invested
$0.46
Value
—
PnL
-$0.46
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
Invested
$0.52
Value
—
PnL
-$0.52
Record
62%
1374-851 (2225)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
1046-1143 (2189)
Invested
$5.76
Value
—
PnL
-$5.76
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$0.22
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $66.98
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $17.11
MayorMamdani
Down — $10
antsaslyku
Down — $6.84
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $10