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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$682.18

Combined PnL

$2.81

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$185.03

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$42.67

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares340

Combined PnL-$39.86

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$514.34	$497.14	-$10.7	57% 2260-1719 (3979)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$251.09	$497.14	+$245.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$253.19	—	-$256.5
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 72.8¢	$83.59	$114.86	+$31.27	53% 1383-1227 (2610)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$25.45	$33.57	+$8.12	37% 662-1125 (1787)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.7	$30	+$0.3	48% 1035-1129 (2164)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$3.62	$6.61	+$2.99	37% 763-1297 (2060)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$7.22	—	-$7.22	34% 575-1141 (1716)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.4	—	-$1.4	39% 722-1145 (1867)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$2	—	-$2	44% 1127-1429 (2556)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 17.9¢	$16.3	—	-$16.3	52% 3892-3651 (7543)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$9.94	—	-$9.94	51% 1437-1363 (2800)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$3	—	-$3	62% 2249-1386 (3635)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.34

Value

$497.14

PnL

-$10.7

Record

57%

2260-1719 (3979)

Both legs:

Down$251.0950.5¢+$245.8

Up$253.1950.1¢-$256.5

Invested

$83.59

Value

$114.86

PnL

+$31.27

Record

53%

1383-1227 (2610)

Invested

$25.45

Value

$33.57

PnL

+$8.12

Record

37%

662-1125 (1787)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

1035-1129 (2164)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$2.99

Record

37%

763-1297 (2060)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

—

PnL

-$7.22

Record

34%

575-1141 (1716)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

—

PnL

-$1.4

Record

39%

722-1145 (1867)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

44%

1127-1429 (2556)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

—

PnL

-$16.3

Record

52%

3892-3651 (7543)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

—

PnL

-$9.94

Record

51%

1437-1363 (2800)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$3

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

62%

2249-1386 (3635)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7acd8a27...3f77d6

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794468600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $114.86

13897651

Down — $33.57

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $30

antsaslyku

Down — $6.61

pspspsps5

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

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