Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 38%

Total Value

$473.82

Combined PnL

-$455.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares870

Combined PnL-$713.73

Up8 traders

Total Value$473.82

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$258.59

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$527.76	—	-$490.19	57% 2260-1719 (3979)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 28.2¢	$90.52	$210.66	+$120.14	53% 1383-1227 (2610)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 36.6¢	$138.01	—	-$122.75	52% 3892-3651 (7543)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 8.7¢	$9.95	$114.94	+$104.99	44% 1127-1429 (2556)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$72.79	—	-$72.79	37% 662-1125 (1787)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 99¢	$54.15	$54.7	+$0.55	74% 897-310 (1207)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$24.63	$50.02	+$25.39	47% 761-858 (1619)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$19.38	$14.77	-$3.93	62% 2249-1386 (3635)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$22.5	—	-$22.5	51% 1437-1363 (2800)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 97¢	$8.08	$8.33	+$0.25	48% 1035-1129 (2164)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 49¢	$5.1	$10.4	+$5.3	55% 1158-945 (2103)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 41¢	$4.1	$10	+$5.9	47% 1150-1313 (2463)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$5.51	—	-$5.51	37% 763-1297 (2060)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$527.76

Value

—

PnL

-$490.19

Record

57%

2260-1719 (3979)

Invested

$90.52

Value

$210.66

PnL

+$120.14

Record

53%

1383-1227 (2610)

Invested

$138.01

Value

—

PnL

-$122.75

Record

52%

3892-3651 (7543)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$9.95

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$104.99

Record

44%

1127-1429 (2556)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$72.79

Value

—

PnL

-$72.79

Record

37%

662-1125 (1787)

Invested

$54.15

Value

$54.7

PnL

+$0.55

Record

74%

897-310 (1207)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$24.63

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$25.39

Record

47%

761-858 (1619)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$14.77

PnL

-$3.93

Record

62%

2249-1386 (3635)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

—

PnL

-$22.5

Record

51%

1437-1363 (2800)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

1035-1129 (2164)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$5.3

Record

55%

1158-945 (2103)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.9

Record

47%

1150-1313 (2463)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

—

PnL

-$5.51

Record

37%

763-1297 (2060)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x67880dd5...96c157

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794468000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $210.66

blue.birds

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $114.94

13897651

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $54.7

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $50.02

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $14.77

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $8.33

Trade on Polymarket